The funds face remain loose and return to tight balance

On Tuesday (March 20), the central bank suspended the open market operation. The 40 million yuan reverse repurchase that expired on the same day naturally returned, and the net withdrawal of funds was 40 billion yuan a day. However, the market funds remained loose and the market demand was quickly met. Seasonal fund prices have risen.

Analysts pointed out that the recent easing of liquidity is mainly due to the central bank's previous operations on reverse repurchase and medium-term lending facilities (MLF), but looking ahead to the market, despite the overall stability of liquidity operations, demand for end-of-season reserves has increased, and fiscal Potential risks such as less than expected funding can not be ignored, and it is expected that the follow-up funds will return to a tight balance.

Keep your money loose

In the morning of Tuesday, the central bank announced that the current liquidity of the banking system is at a relatively high level, which can absorb the influence of the central bank's reverse repurchase due and other factors, and will not conduct open market operations on March 20. Due to the expiration of 40 billion reverse repurchase on the same day, the net withdrawal of funds in a single day was 40 billion yuan, which was the first net return of open market operations since March 12.

However, benefiting from the previous net investment by the central bank, the market funds will continue to be loose. According to market sources, the overall face of funds remained loose yesterday. In early trading, bank institutions had a large amount of overnight weighted out, and demand quickly met; 7-day varieties were in a balanced and loose state, and some banks were also out; 14-day varieties were affected by the season. Impact, prices have risen, and the number of financing institutions has also decreased. Near noon, there will be a reduction point overnight, and the afternoon will continue to be loose overnight. In terms of price and volume, the prices of 7 days and 14 days have risen yesterday. The price of 14 days has been greatly affected by the cross-season. The volume of transactions has increased by 14 days. Some institutions have begun to integrate into the season.

In the silver deposit pledge repo market, yesterday's overnight weighted interest rate DR001 was steady at 2.54%, the representative 7-day weighted interest rate rose slightly by about 2BP to 2.83%; the inter-season 14-day weighted interest rate rose sharply by about 39BP. The latest report was 3.90%; in addition, the 21-day weighted interest rate also rose 4BP to 4.98%.

Regression tight balance

Analysts pointed out that in mid-March, the market supply and demand balance was loose and the money market operated smoothly, mainly due to the timely hedging of the central bank, and the mid-month tax payment and payment did not cause major fluctuations. However, after the announcement of the Fed's interest rate decision, the central bank's operation is still worth observing. In addition, in the latter half of the year, the end-of-season assessment effect began to appear, and the follow-up capital fabrics returned to a tight balance.

According to statistics, from March 12 to 19, the central bank carried out a total of 290 billion yuan reverse repurchase, and after the 50 billion yuan reverse repurchase expired, the net investment was 240 billion yuan; in addition, the central bank also launched 327 billion yuan. MLF, after the expiration of 189.5 billion yuan of MLF, the net medium and long-term funds were 239.5 billion yuan. In terms of comprehensive reverse repurchase and MLF, the central bank has accumulatively invested 377.5 billion yuan in six trading days from March 12 to 19.

Shenwan Hong source 000166, 00218 Hong Kong stocks diagnosis Securities in the latest research report pointed out that monetary policy since the beginning, the central bank monetary policy operations continued to face liquidity care, recently, in the market for the Fed to raise interest rates expected to be more insufficient Under the same time, the central bank did not raise the overall interest rate at the same time as the MLF continued to be renewed in March, indicating a stable and neutral monetary policy intention. It is expected that the steady rate of funds will continue to be stable during the year.

BOC International pointed out that in the short-term, from the supply side, at the end of the month, when the fiscal seasonal high expenditures come, the supply pressure should not be large. The main concern of the market is whether the MPA will check whether the bank will increase its reserve demand and reduce its willingness to finance.