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In September, the global gold market is set to experience a traditional surge in demand. This seasonal trend typically occurs between September and February, as major gold-consuming countries such as India, the Middle East, and China celebrate a series of significant cultural and religious festivals. Jewelers often begin stockpiling gold one to two months ahead of these peak periods. We believe that gold prices exhibit strong seasonal patterns, with the fourth quarter historically marking the highest level of gold consumption. As a result, spot gold demand will likely play a key role in shaping price movements this year, just as it has in previous years.
It's important not to overlook the growing influence of China on international gold markets. On August 4, several key Chinese government agencies—including the People's Bank of China, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Finance, the State Administration of Taxation, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission—released a joint document titled "Several Opinions on Promoting the Development of the Gold Market." The policy outlines measures to expand the qualifications of commercial banks for importing and exporting gold. It also emphasizes the need to develop the gold loan market and diversify supply channels by supporting large gold enterprises and promoting their international expansion through the "going out" strategy.
This regulatory shift signals that China is actively removing barriers for its financial institutions and major gold companies to access global gold markets. As a result, Chinese buyers are expected to become more prominent participants in the international gold trade. This development brings us closer to the long-held vision of "gold hoarding at the grassroots level," where individuals and businesses can more easily invest in and store gold. With these policy changes, we may soon witness a new era of increased participation and influence from China in the global gold market.
August 25, 2025