This year, the garment industry will face complex trends in exports
Due to the growing uncertainties in the global market, China’s textile and apparel exports are expected to face a challenging environment this year. A combination of factors such as weak global economic growth, ongoing sovereign debt crises, pressure from currency appreciation, and rising costs of labor and raw materials are all contributing to a more complex export landscape.
While the European and American markets have shown some signs of recovery, the pace remains slow. With international demand not expanding significantly, China’s textile exports have managed to perform reasonably well. However, the slowdown in global economic recovery and reduced consumer spending will likely limit future export growth. Additionally, the pressure from the yuan's appreciation could erode the competitive edge of Chinese textile products, potentially leading to order losses.
Currency appreciation has become a double-edged sword. As Zhong Shan, vice minister of the Ministry of Commerce, once put it, “If the water is heated to 99°C, it won’t boil, but adding just one degree more will make it boil.†This metaphor highlights the fragile position of many Chinese textile exporters. Currently, the average net profit margin for the industry is between 3% and 4%, rarely exceeding 5%. If the yuan appreciates by more than 5%, over half of the companies could be severely affected. Moreover, if cotton import quotas remain restrictive, the industry might suffer significant order losses after the currency rise, pushing profits close to zero.
Domestically, the textile sector is also dealing with rising production costs, including labor and raw materials. These pressures are expected to slow down the growth of textile and apparel exports in 2011. Recruitment challenges have become a major issue, especially in the garment industry. Before the Spring Festival, cotton prices experienced a sharp fluctuation, causing a sudden spike that hit the industry hard. Throughout 2010, "labor shortage" was the top constraint on the clothing industry, even though conditions were better in the north compared to the south. Worker turnover rates in garment factories typically range from 10% to 20%, creating operational inefficiencies. In coastal areas, the overall operating rate dropped to around 70%, with many large companies reducing their output to 80% due to labor shortages and higher wages. Many small businesses increased outsourcing to maintain operations, with about 50% of SMEs relying heavily on this strategy.
Over the past two decades, China benefited greatly from a large labor supply and abundant workforce, which contributed significantly to the growth of its textile and apparel industry. However, with 74% of new-generation workers having different employment expectations and structural labor imbalances, the positive impact of the demographic dividend is gradually diminishing. While population aging plays a role, there is still a large number of rural workers who lack the necessary skills to transition into urban industries.
Despite these challenges, adopting high-tech solutions to modernize traditional textile industries and enhancing innovation, technology, and brand value can boost the sector’s global competitiveness. These strategies are essential for overcoming current obstacles and ensuring sustainable development in the long run.
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